Jak vypočítat Bitcoin Halving Impact

Co je Bitcoin Halving Impact?

The Bitcoin Halving Impact Calculator models the supply shock effect of Bitcoin halving events (every 210,000 blocks, ~4 years), which cut the block reward in half and historically precede significant price appreciation cycles.

Vzorec

R₁

Pre-Halving Reward (BTC) — Block reward before the halving event

R₂

Post-Halving Reward (BTC) — Block reward after halving (R₁ / 2)

B

Blocks per Year (blocks) — Approximately 52,560 blocks mined per year

S

Circulating Supply (BTC) — Total Bitcoin currently in circulation (~19.6M)

Průvodce krok za krokem

1. 1Input the current block reward and the post-halving reward (half of current)
2. 2Calculate the reduction in annual new BTC supply (~52,560 blocks per year)
3. 3Model the supply shock using stock-to-flow ratio (existing supply / annual production)
4. 4Compare historical price performance in the 12-18 months following previous halvings

Worked Examples

Common Mistakes to Avoid

• ✕Assuming halving automatically causes price increase — correlation is not causation
• ✕Ignoring that miners may sell reserves after halving to cover costs, adding sell pressure
• ✕Not accounting for the halving already being priced in by market expectations

Frequently Asked Questions