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Jak vypočítat Lottery Expected Value

Co je Lottery Expected Value?

The expected value (EV) of a lottery ticket is the average return per ticket purchase, calculated as the jackpot divided by the odds of winning, minus the ticket cost. Almost all lottery tickets have negative expected value — they are, mathematically, a losing proposition.

Vzorec

EV = (Jackpot × Probability of winning) − Ticket cost
EV
(Jackpot / Odds) − Price — (Jackpot / Odds) − Price

Průvodce krok za krokem

  1. 1EV = (Jackpot × Probability of winning) − Ticket cost
  2. 2Or equivalently: EV = (Jackpot / Odds) − Price
  3. 3If EV is negative, you lose money on average
  4. 4Note: real EV is even worse due to income taxes on winnings (often 30–40%)

Worked Examples

Vstup
UK Lotto: £10M jackpot, odds 1:45M, £2 ticket
Výsledek
EV = −£1.78 per ticket
You lose £1.78 on average per play
Vstup
UK Lotto: £100M rollover, same odds
Výsledek
EV = +£0.22 per ticket
Rare positive EV — but tax and shared jackpots change this

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Lottery Expected Value?

The expected value (EV) of a lottery ticket is the average return per ticket purchase, calculated as the jackpot divided by the odds of winning, minus the ticket cost. Almost all lottery tickets have negative expected value — they are, mathematically, a losing proposition

How accurate is the Lottery Expected Value calculator?

The calculator uses the standard published formula for lottery expected value. Results are accurate to the precision of the inputs you provide. For financial, medical, or legal decisions, always verify with a qualified professional.

What units does the Lottery Expected Value calculator use?

This calculator works with inches, percentages. You can enter values in the units shown — the calculator handles all conversions internally.

What formula does the Lottery Expected Value calculator use?

The core formula is: EV = (Jackpot × Probability of winning) − Ticket cost. Each step in the calculation is shown so you can verify the result manually.

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