Free Cash Flow DCF Valuation
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Track FCF conversion rate (FCF / Net Income) over time for any business you analyze. A declining rate suggests working capital or capex problems; a rising rate suggests improving cash efficiency. The best businesses sustain conversion rates above 100% (FCF exceeds net income), typically because depreciation exceeds maintenance capex.
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Amazon reported near-zero or negative FCF for most of its first 20 years as it invested aggressively in warehouses and technology. Investors who understood that this represented high-return investment — not operational failure — were richly rewarded. Amazon's FCF turned consistently positive around 2016 and has since grown to tens of billions annually.
Références
- ›Damodaran – Investment Valuation (3rd ed.) — Chapter on Cash Flows
- ›CFA Institute – Free Cash Flow Valuation
- ›Koller, Goedhart & Wessels – Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies (McKinsey)
- ›Investopedia – Free Cash Flow Definition
- ›Warren Buffett – 1986 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter (Owner Earnings concept)
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