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Altman Z-score predicts business bankruptcy risk using financial ratios: Z = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + 1.0X5.

ステップバイステップガイド

  1. 1Input five financial variables from balance sheet/income
  2. 2Calculate weighted Z-score
  3. 3Interpret: <1.8 bankruptcy risk, 1.8-3.0 gray zone, >3.0 safe

解いた例

入力
Strong profitable company
結果
Z ≈ 4.0 (safe)
Low bankruptcy risk

避けるべきよくある間違い

  • Using outdated financial data
  • Applying to non-manufacturing (modified formula needed)

よくある質問

Is Z-score accurate?

70-80% accurate first 2 years before bankruptcy; less reliable beyond.

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