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The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Price Band Calculator maps the current Bitcoin price onto logarithmic regression bands that color-code market sentiment from "fire sale" (blue) to "maximum bubble territory" (red), based on historical long-term price trends.

公式

Rainbow Band = 10^(a × ln(Days Since Genesis) + b) × Band Multiplier

d: Days Since Genesis (days) — Number of days since January 3, 2009 (Bitcoin genesis block)
a: Regression Slope (coefficient) — Logarithmic regression slope parameter
b: Regression Intercept (coefficient) — Logarithmic regression y-intercept
M: Band Multiplier (factor) — Multiplier spacing between rainbow color bands

ステップバイステップガイド

1Calculate the number of days since Bitcoin genesis block (January 3, 2009)
2Apply the logarithmic regression to determine the center trend line
3Generate 8-9 color bands above and below the trend at fixed logarithmic intervals
4Map the current BTC price to the corresponding band to assess market cycle position

解いた例

入力

BTC at $65,000, Day 5,960 since genesis (April 2025)

結果

Falls in "HODL" (green) band — historically neutral, neither cheap nor expensive

入力

BTC at $100,000 at the same date

結果

Falls in "FOMO intensifies" (orange) band — historically elevated, caution warranted

避けるべきよくある間違い

✕Treating the rainbow chart as a precise prediction tool rather than a rough sentiment indicator
✕Not updating the regression coefficients periodically as more data becomes available
✕Making buy/sell decisions solely based on rainbow band position without fundamental analysis

よくある質問

Is the Bitcoin rainbow chart accurate?

The rainbow chart is a rough heuristic based on historical log regression, not a predictive model. It has been reasonably accurate at identifying extreme overvaluation (red bands) and undervaluation (blue bands) in past cycles, but it cannot predict future prices.

What do the rainbow colors mean?

Blue/deep blue = "fire sale" / "basically free money" (extreme undervaluation). Green = "accumulate" / "cheap." Yellow = "HODL" (fair value). Orange = "FOMO" (expensive). Red/dark red = "bubble" / "sell, seriously sell" (extreme overvaluation).

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