🎰Lottery Expected Value Calculator
e.g. 10000000
UK Lotto: 45,057,474
The expected value (EV) of a lottery ticket is the average return per ticket purchase, calculated as the jackpot divided by the odds of winning, minus the ticket cost. Almost all lottery tickets have negative expected value — they are, mathematically, a losing proposition.
- 1EV = (Jackpot × Probability of winning) − Ticket cost
- 2Or equivalently: EV = (Jackpot / Odds) − Price
- 3If EV is negative, you lose money on average
- 4Note: real EV is even worse due to income taxes on winnings (often 30–40%)
UK Lotto: £10M jackpot, odds 1:45M, £2 ticket=EV = −£1.78 per ticketYou lose £1.78 on average per play
UK Lotto: £100M rollover, same odds=EV = +£0.22 per ticketRare positive EV — but tax and shared jackpots change this
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Fun Fact
The UK Lotto returns about 45p for every £1 spent on average (before jackpots). Scratch cards typically return 60–65p per £1. No lottery offers positive expected value to the average player.
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