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Applies Bayes theorem updating probability based on new evidence. Foundation of probabilistic reasoning.

Формула

P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) ÷ P(B)
P
overall probability of evidence — overall probability of evidence
A
likelihood of evidence given A — likelihood of evidence given A
B
overall probability of evidence — overall probability of evidence

Пошаговое руководство

  1. 1P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) ÷ P(B)
  2. 2P(A|B) = posterior (updated probability)
  3. 3P(A) = prior probability
  4. 4P(B|A) = likelihood of evidence given A
  5. 5P(B) = overall probability of evidence

Решённые примеры

Ввод
P(A), P(B|A), P(B)
Результат
P(A|B) calculated

Распространённые ошибки

  • Confusing conditional probabilities
  • Not updating priors properly
  • Forgetting normalization constant P(B)

Часто задаваемые вопросы

What's practical example?

Medical test: prior disease probability, test accuracy, posterior if positive test result.

Why is Bayes important?

Foundation of statistical inference, machine learning, and decision-making under uncertainty.

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