Win Probability Calculator
Wins
Losses
Draws
A win probability calculator estimates the likelihood of winning based on team or player ratings, historical data, or Elo-style scores. Used in sports analytics and betting markets.
- 1Simple: P(win) = Team strength / (Team strength + Opponent strength)
- 2Elo: Expected score = 1 / (1 + 10^((Opp_rating − Team_rating)/400))
- 3More factors: home advantage, recent form, injuries
- 4Convert probability to odds: Odds = 1/P
Team rated 1600 Elo vs opponent 1400 Elo=P(win) = 1/(1 + 10^((1400−1600)/400)) = 1/(1+10^−0.5) = 76%
| Win probability | Decimal odds | Fractional odds |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | 2.00 | Evens |
| 67% | 1.50 | 1/2 |
| 75% | 1.33 | 1/3 |
| 80% | 1.25 | 1/4 |
| 90% | 1.11 | 1/9 |
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