如何计算Monte Carlo Retirement
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Monte Carlo retirement planner simulates thousands of market scenarios to estimate success probability of retirement plan.
分步指南
- 1Input retirement needs, portfolio size, asset allocation, inflation
- 2Simulate 1000+ random market scenarios
- 3Calculate percentage where funds last
例题解析
输入
Portfolio $1M, 4% withdrawal, 60/40 allocation
结果
90% success rate (95% success with 3% withdrawal)
Industry standard approach
常见错误注意事项
- ✕Using average returns (ignores sequence risk)
- ✕Neglecting inflation adjustments
常见问题
What success rate is adequate?
Academic consensus: 90-95% for 30-year retirement.
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