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How to Calculate H1B Lottery Probability

What is H1B Lottery Probability?

The H-1B Lottery Probability Calculator estimates your chances of being selected in the annual US H-1B visa lottery based on the number of registrations, available slots, and whether you hold a US advanced degree. Starting FY2025, USCIS uses a beneficiary-centric selection process where each unique beneficiary gets one chance regardless of how many employers register them.

Formula

P(selected) = 1 - P(not selected in regular) × P(not selected in advanced degree); P(not selected) = (1 - slots/registrations)
N
Total Registrations — Total unique beneficiary registrations submitted for the fiscal year
R
Regular Cap Slots — Annual regular cap of 65,000 H-1B visas
M
Master's Cap Slots — Additional 20,000 slots reserved for US advanced degree holders

Step-by-Step Guide

  1. 1Enter the estimated total number of lottery registrations for the fiscal year
  2. 2Indicate whether you hold a US Master's degree or higher (eligible for the advanced degree exemption)
  3. 3The calculator first runs all registrations through the regular cap pool (~65,000 slots)
  4. 4Unselected registrations with US advanced degrees then enter the advanced degree pool (~20,000 slots)
  5. 5Your probability is calculated using complementary probability accounting for both rounds if applicable

Worked Examples

Input
780,000 registrations, no US advanced degree
Result
P(selected) = 65,000/780,000 ≈ 8.3% in the regular round only
Input
780,000 registrations, US Master's degree holder
Result
Regular round: ~8.3%, then remaining ~715K compete for 20K advanced slots: ~2.8%. Combined: approximately 10.9%
Input
450,000 registrations (lower volume year), US Master's
Result
Regular: ~14.4%, Advanced: ~3.9%. Combined: approximately 17.8%

Common Mistakes to Avoid

  • ✕Confusing the fiscal year with the calendar year — FY2025 H-1B registration opens in March 2024 for employment starting October 2024
  • ✕Assuming multiple employer registrations multiply your chances — since FY2025, USCIS selects by unique beneficiary, so multiple registrations do not help
  • ✕Not understanding that the advanced degree exemption only applies to degrees from US institutions — foreign Master's degrees compete in the regular pool only
  • ✕Ignoring that actual selection rates can be slightly higher than calculated because some selected registrations are never filed or are denied

Frequently Asked Questions

What are my odds if multiple employers register me?

Since the FY2025 cycle, USCIS uses a beneficiary-centric selection system. Each unique beneficiary is entered into the lottery only once, regardless of how many employers register them. Multiple registrations no longer increase your chances.

Does the H-1B lottery happen every year?

Yes, USCIS opens an electronic registration period in March each year for the following fiscal year. The lottery is conducted shortly after the registration window closes. Results are typically announced by the end of March or early April.

What happens if I am not selected?

Unselected candidates may explore alternatives such as O-1 (extraordinary ability), L-1 (intracompany transfer), Cap-exempt H-1B positions at universities or research institutions, or re-entering the lottery the following year. F-1 students may extend OPT or STEM OPT.

Are cap-exempt H-1B petitions included in the lottery?

No. H-1B petitions filed by institutions of higher education, nonprofit research organizations, and governmental research organizations are exempt from the annual cap and do not go through the lottery process.

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